Effect of spatial variability on uranium diffusion in the three facies of the Opalinus Clay at Mont Terri
GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Marco Fabbri
GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
University of Bologna, DICAM, Bologna, Italy
Theresa Hennig
GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
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Migration of uranium in the potential host rock Opalinus Clay is used as an example to demonstrate the extent to which simulated migration lengths can vary for a million years, depending on the model concept and on the underlying data and parameters. To reduce the uncertainty in this context, the calcite carbonate ion and the hydrogeological system at a potential disposal site need to be known, whereas the quantity of clay minerals plays a subordinate role, as long as it is enough.
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Uranium migration in the Swiss Opalinus Clay is used as an example to quantify the influence of varying values of a stability constant in the underlying thermodynamic database within the law of mass action on the migration lengths. The difference of the stability constant of 1.33 log units lead to changed migration lengths of 5 m to 7 m. With a maximum diffusion distance of 22 m the influence of an uncertain stability constant is negligible for the host rock scale.
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Short summary
The effect of spatial variability on uranium diffusion in Opalinus Clay over a million years was assessed by 2D reactive transport simulations. Different rock types and porosity impacted results, with variability's influence growing with longer correlation lengths of geostatistical simulations (up to 12.9 %). This highlights that 1D models may underestimate uncertainty in long-term radionuclide transport at repository sites, and spatial variability must be considered.
The effect of spatial variability on uranium diffusion in Opalinus Clay over a million years was...