Articles | Volume 54
05 Mar 2021
05 Mar 2021
Multi-decadal offshore wind power variability can be mitigated through optimized European allocation
Charlotte Neubacher et al.
No articles found.
Jan Wohland, Doris Folini, and Bryn Pickering
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for ESDShort summary
Surface winds fluctuate. From around 1980 to 2010, surface onshore winds generally became weaker and they have gained in strength since then. While these fluctuations are well known, we currently do not fully understand why they happen. To investigate the reasons, we use a large set of climate simulations with one model, a so called large ensemble. We find that the observed long-term wind fluctuations occur naturally under current and future conditions and do not require a specific trigger.
Jan Wohland, Nour Eddine Omrani, Noel Keenlyside, and Dirk Witthaut
Wind Energ. Sci., 4, 515–526,Short summary
Wind park planning and power system design require robust wind resource information. While most assessments are restricted to the last four decades, we use centennial reanalyses to study wind energy generation variability in Germany. We find that statistically significant multi-decadal variability exists. These long-term effects must be considered when planning future highly renewable power systems. Otherwise, there is a risk of inefficient system design and ill-informed investments.
Jan Wohland, Mark Reyers, Juliane Weber, and Dirk Witthaut
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1047–1060,Short summary
Solar and wind energy generation are weather dependent and can not be switched on when needed. Despite this, stable electricity supply can be obtained by aggregation over large areas, for example Europe. However, we show that strong climate change impedes spatial balancing of electricity because countries are more likely to suffer from simultaneous generation shortfall. As a consequence, local scarcity can less often be balanced by imports.
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In our study, we investigate the variability of potential offshore wind power over Europe on time scales of more than 10 years. Detailed spectral analysis of potential offshore wind power capacities over the last century indicates a strong coupling to large climate patterns such as the NAO. Furthermore, combining the wind power potential at the German North Sea and the Portuguese Atlantic coast shows that the variability can be mitigated.
In our study, we investigate the variability of potential offshore wind power over Europe on...