Impacts of global change on water-related sectors and society in a trans-boundary central European river basin – Part 1: project framework and impacts on agriculture
- 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- 2Institute for Water Resources Planning and Systems Research (WASY GmbH), Waltersdorfer Strasse 105, 12526 Berlin-Bohnsdorf, Germany
- 3Federal Agricultural Research Centre (FAL), Bundesallee 50, 38116 Braunschweig, Germany
Abstract. Central Europe, the focus region of this study, is a region in transition, climatically from maritime to continental and politically from formerly more planning-oriented to more market-oriented management regimes, and in terms of climate change from regions of increasing precipitation in the west and north of Europe to regions of decreasing precipitation in central and southern Europe. The Elbe basin, a trans-boundary catchment flowing from the Czech Republic through Germany into the North Sea, was selected to investigate the possible impacts of global change on crop yields and water resources in this region.
For technical reasons, the paper has been split into two parts, the first showing the overall model concept, the model set-up for the agricultural sector, and first results linking eco-hydrological and agro-economic tools for the German part of the basin. The second part describes the model set-up for simulating water supply and demand linking eco-hydrological and water management tools for the entire basin including the Czech part.