Articles | Volume 42
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-42-73-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-42-73-2016
26 Aug 2016
 | 26 Aug 2016

Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4 Index: a comparison

Miguel Tasambay-Salazar, María José OrtizBeviá, Antonio RuizdeElvira, and Francisco José Alvarez-García

Cited articles

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Ballester, J., Rodríguez-Arias, M., and Rodó, X.: A new extratropical tracer describing the role of the western Pacific in the onset of El Niño: Implications for ENSO understanding and forecasting, J. Climate, 24, 1425–1437, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3619.1, 2011.
Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, Seasonality and Persistence of Low-Frequency Atmospheric Circulation Patterns, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1083–1126, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2, 1987.
Carton, J. A. and Giese, B. S.: A Reanalysis of Ocean Climate Using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 2999–3017, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1978.1, 2008.
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Short summary
We investigate the factors that determine the longer lead ENSO predictability in the 1980-2012 period. We compare different versions of the prediction model using some variables that contain tropical or extratropical information.We observe that where tropical predictors are used the prediction reproduces only the equatorial characteristics of the warming (cooling). However, where extratropical predictors are included, the predictions are able to simulate the absorbed warming in the SPCZ.