Verification of precipitation forecasts by the DWD limited area model LME over Cyprus

Abstract. A comparison is made between the precipitation forecasts by the non-hydrostatic limited area model LME of the German Weather Service (DWD) and observations from a network of rain gauges in Cyprus. This is a first attempt to carry out a preliminary verification and evaluation of the LME precipitation forecasts over the area of Cyprus.

For the verification, model forecasts and observations were used covering an eleven month period, from 1/2/2005 till 31/12/2005. The observations were made by three Automatic Weather Observing Systems (AWOS) located at Larnaka and Paphos airports and at Athalassa synoptic station, as well as at 6, 6 and 8 rain gauges within a radius of about 30 km around these stations, respectively. The observations were compared with the model outputs, separately for each of the three forecast days.

The "probability of detection" (POD) of a precipitation event and the "false alarm rate" (FAR) were calculated. From the selected cases of the forecast precipitation events, the average forecast precipitation amounts in the area around the three stations were compared with the measured ones.

An attempt was also made to evaluate the model's skill in predicting the spatial distribution of precipitation and, in this respect, the geographical position of the maximum forecast precipitation amount was contrasted to the position of the corresponding observed maximum. Maps with monthly precipitation totals observed by a local network of 150 rain gauges were compared with the corresponding forecast precipitation maps.