Impact of the assimilation of conventional data on the quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Eastern Mediterranean

Abstract. This study is devoted to the evaluation of the role of assimilation of conventional data on the quantitative precipitation forecasts at regional scale. The conventional data included surface station reports as well as upper air observations. The analysis was based on the simulation of 15 cases of heavy precipitation that occurred in the Eastern Mediterranean. The verification procedure revealed that the ingestion of conventional data by objective analysis in the initial conditions of BOLAM limited area model do not result in a statistically significant improvement of the quantitative precipitation forecasts.