Variability of rainfall in Suriname and the relation with ENSO-SST and TA-SST
- University of Suriname, Paramaribo, Suriname
Abstract. Spatial correlations in the annual rainfall anomalies are analyzed using principle component analyses (PCA). Cross correlation analysis and composites are used to measure the influence of sea surface temperatures anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific Ocean with the seasonal rainfall in Suriname. The spatial and time variability in rainfall is mainly determined by the meridional movement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Rainfall anomalies tend to occur fairly uniformly over the whole country. In December-January (short wet season), there is a lagged correlation with the SSTAs in the Pacific region (clag3Nino1+2=-0.63). The strongest correlation between the March-May rainfall (beginning long wet season) and the Pacific SSTAs is found with a correlation coefficient of ckNino1+2=0.59 at lag 1 month. The June-August rainfall (end part of long wet season) shows the highest correlation with SSTAs in the TSA region and is about c=-0.52 for lag 0. In the September-November long dry season there is also a lagged correlation with the TSA SSTAs of about clag3=0.66. The different correlations and predictors can be used for seasonal rainfall predictions.