Diversity of Rainfall Thresholds for early warning of hydro-geological disasters

Abstract. For early warning of disasters induced by precipitation (such as floods and landslides), different kinds of rainfall thresholds are adopted, which vary from each other, on the basis on adopted hypotheses. In some cases, they represent the occurrence probability of an event (landslide or flood), in other cases the exceedance probability of a critical value for an assigned indicator I (a function of rainfall heights), and in further cases they only indicate the exceeding of a prefixed percentage a critical value for I, indicated as I_cr. For each scheme, it is usual to define three different criticality levels (ordinary, moderate and severe), which are associated to warning levels, according to emergency plans. This work briefly discusses different schemes of rainfall thresholds, focusing attention on landslide prediction, with some applications to a real case study in Calabria region (southern Italy).