Stochastic precipitation modeling using circulation patterns to analyze climate impact on floods

Abstract. This paper presents the conditioning of a precipitation model to objectively classified circulation patterns (CP). The application of CPs is considered useful with regards to model accuracy improvement and preparation of a downscaling model by using CPs classified with climate model data. As this study aims to produce rainfall as input for derived flood frequency analyses, the validation focuses on extreme values and precipitation events. The analysis is carried out by modifications of a well tested alternating renewal precipitation model.