Long-term changes in rainfall and tropical cyclone activity over South and Southeast Asia

Abstract. Long-term changes in rainfall and associated tropical cyclone (TC) activity in transition seasons between the wet and dry seasons in South and Southeast Asia, namely boreal spring and fall, were examined, using gridded rainfall, TC tracks, and reanalysis datasets, the focus of discussion being the long-term changes in coastal regions. It was found that long-term changes in rainfall during the transition seasons in South and Southeast Asia were closely associated with those in TC activity over the north Indian Ocean and South China Sea. Rainfall in May increased in the last 40 years over and around Myanmar, which indicates an earlier monsoon onset over the western Indochina Peninsula. Rainfall over and around northern Vietnam also increased in the last 40 years during October, which is known as the monsoon retreat period. These increases were associated with the long-term changes in TC activity. Furthermore, although linear trends have been previously suggested, monotonically increasing or decreasing trends in these long-term changes were not found over the last 60 years.