Articles | Volume 29
Adv. Geosci., 29, 61–67, 2011
Adv. Geosci., 29, 61–67, 2011

  28 Feb 2011

28 Feb 2011

Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

H.-J. Bao2,1, L.-N. Zhao2,1, Y. He6,3, Z.-J. Li4, F. Wetterhall3,7, H. L. Cloke3, F. Pappenberger5, and D. Manful3 H.-J. Bao et al.
  • 1Public Weather Service Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
  • 2National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
  • 3Department of Geography, King's College London, Strand, London, WC2R 2LS, UK
  • 4College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • 5European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
  • 6Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia, NR4 7TJ, UK
  • 7Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

Abstract. The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.