Articles | Volume 29
Adv. Geosci., 29, 33–42, 2011
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-33-2011
Adv. Geosci., 29, 33–42, 2011
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-33-2011

  28 Feb 2011

28 Feb 2011

Can a multi-model approach improve hydrological ensemble forecasting? A study on 29 French catchments using 16 hydrological model structures

J. A. Velázquez1, F. Anctil1, M. H. Ramos2, and C. Perrin2 J. A. Velázquez et al.
  • 1Chaire de recherche EDS en prévisions et actions hydrologiques, Génie civil et génie des eaux, Université Laval, Québec, Canada
  • 2Cemagref, Hydrosystems and Bioprocesses Research Unit, Parc de Tourvoie, BP 44, 92163 Antony Cedex, France

Abstract. An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting system based on a meteorological ensemble prediction system (M-EPS) coupled with a hydrological model searches to capture the uncertainties associated with the meteorological prediction to better predict river flows. However, the structure of the hydrological model is also an important source of uncertainty that has to be taken into account. This study aims at evaluating and comparing the performance and the reliability of different types of hydrological ensemble prediction systems (H-EPS), when ensemble weather forecasts are combined with a multi-model approach. The study is based on 29 catchments in France and 16 lumped hydrological model structures, driven by the weather forecasts from the European centre for medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF). Results show that the ensemble predictions produced by a combination of several hydrological model structures and meteorological ensembles have higher skill and reliability than ensemble predictions given either by one single hydrological model fed by weather ensemble predictions or by several hydrological models and a deterministic meteorological forecast.