Application of a regional approach for hazard mapping at an avalanche site in northern Italy
Abstract. The currently adopted approach to avalanche hazard mapping in northern Italy includes avalanche dynamic modelling, coupled with statistical analysis of snow depth at avalanche start. The 30-years and 300-years return period avalanches at a given site are modelled and their run out zone and pressure are evaluated. The snow depth in the avalanche release zone is assumed to coincide with the three days snow fall depth H72 featuring a return period of 30 years and 300 years, respectively. In the Italian alps only short series of observed snow depth are available, covering a period of 20 years or so, thus requiring a regional approach, or index value approach for the purpose of high return period quantile estimation. Based of former studies, here we apply the index value approach developed for the Lombardia region, in northern Italy, for hazard mapping in a particular avalanche site. A dynamic avalanche model is tuned using the runout data for two major observed avalanche events. Then, the 30-years and 300-years runout zone and dynamic pressure are calculated. It is then shown that the obtained hazard maps are more accurate than those obtained using the evaluation of H72 as deduced from distribution fitting in a single site.
