The surface climatology of the eastern Mediterranean region obtained in a three-member ensemble climate change simulation experiment

Abstract. Two configurations of RegCM3 regional climate model (RCM) have been used to downscale results of two atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations of the current (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100) over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region. The RCM domain covering the EM region from northern Africa to central part of Asia Minor with grid spacing of 50 km was used. Three sets of RCM simulations were completed. Results of the RCM experiment support earlier projections of a temperature (annual precipitation) increase (decrease) to the end of 21st century over the EM. The roles of several major factors in controlling uncertainty of the climate change estimates are evaluated. The main uncertainty factors appear to be associated with possible inadequacies in RCM description of the EM-climate-controlling developments over remotely located areas as well as those in the simulations of the global climate and its trends by the AOGCMs.