Articles | Volume 12
Adv. Geosci., 12, 153–158, 2007
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-12-153-2007
Adv. Geosci., 12, 153–158, 2007
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-12-153-2007

  16 Nov 2007

16 Nov 2007

Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

P. Lionello1 and F. Giorgi2 P. Lionello and F. Giorgi
  • 1University of Salento, Lecce, Italy
  • 2ICTP, Trieste, Italy

Abstract. Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

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