Sensitivity and uncertainty in flood inundation modelling – concept of an analysis framework

Abstract. After the extreme flood event of the Elbe in 2002 the definition of flood risk areas by law and their simulation became more important in Germany. This paper describes a concept of an analysis framework to improve the localisation and duration of validity of flood inundation maps. The two-dimensional finite difference model TrimR2D is used and linked to a Monte-Carlo routine for parameter sampling as well as to selected performance measures. The purpose is the investigation of the impact of different spatial resolutions and the influence of changing land uses in the simulation of flood inundation areas. The technical assembling of the framework is realised and beside the model calibration, first tests with different parameter ranges were done. Preliminary results show good correlations with observed data, but the investigation of shifting land uses reflects only poor changes in the flood extension.