ADGEO Advances in Geosciences ADGEO Adv. Geosci. 1680-7359 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/adgeo-26-71-2010 Bayesian trend analysis for daily rainfall series of Barcelona Ortego M. I. 1 Gibergans-Báguena J. 1 Tolosana-Delgado R. 2 Egozcue J. J. 1 Llasat M. C. 3 Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada III, Barcelona, Spain Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima, Barcelona, Spain Universitat de Barcelona, Departament d'Astronomia i Meteorologia, Barcelona, Spain 15 07 2010 26 71 76 Copyright: © 2010 M. I. Ortego et al. 2010 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://adgeo.copernicus.org/articles/26/71/2010/adgeo-26-71-2010.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://adgeo.copernicus.org/articles/26/71/2010/adgeo-26-71-2010.pdf

A Point-Over-Threshold approach using a reparameterization of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) has been used to assess changes in the daily rainfall Barcelona series (1854–2006). A Bayesian approach, considering the suitable scale and physical features of the phenomenon, has been used to look for these alterations. Two different models have been assessed: existence of abrupt changes in the new GPD parameters due to modifications of the observatory locations and trends in these GPD parameters, pointing to a climate change scenario.

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