ADGEO Advances in Geosciences ADGEO Adv. Geosci. 1680-7359 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/adgeo-12-145-2007 Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts Weiß M. 1 Flörke M. 1 Menzel L. 1 Alcamo J. 1 Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kurt-Wolters-Str. 3, 34109 Kassel, Germany 02 11 2007 12 145 151 Copyright: © 2007 M. Weiß et al. 2007 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Generic License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ This article is available from https://adgeo.copernicus.org/articles/12/145/2007/adgeo-12-145-2007.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://adgeo.copernicus.org/articles/12/145/2007/adgeo-12-145-2007.pdf

This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

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